The Global Mining Development Report 2020-2021 was officially released

On October 22, 2021, at the 23rd China International Mining Conference, the International Mining Research Center of China Geological Survey, Ministry of Natural Resources, released the Global Mining Development Report (2020-2021). This report is the first report in the world to comprehensively analyze the global mining development trend since the COVID-19, and it is also an important research achievement of Chinese research institutions serving the sustainable development of global mining.

The report shows that since the outbreak of the COVID-19, the global demand for energy and resources has generally shrunk and the structure has been differentiated, the consumption of energy and bulk minerals has declined, and the consumption of new energy and minerals has grown rapidly. In 2020, the total global energy consumption will decline by 4.5%, which is a sharp drop since World War II; Oil, coal and natural gas decreased by 9.5%, 3.9% and 2.1% respectively, while renewable energy such as wind power, hydropower and solar energy increased by 9.7%. Iron and aluminum decreased by 0.2% and 0.7% respectively; Copper, lithium and cobalt increased by 6.2%, 15.3% and 7.3% respectively.

The global supply capacity of mineral resources has been damaged, and the vulnerability of the resource supply chain is highlighted. The epidemic has had a great impact on global mine production. According to incomplete statistics, 36 countries or regions have closed 276 mines at one time, and more than 1600 mining projects have been affected by the epidemic. In 2020, the global total output of major mineral products will decrease by 3.7% compared with 2019. Among them, the output of energy, metal and non-metallic mineral products decreased by 5.1%, 1.4% and 0.5% year on year respectively, and the decline of energy and mineral products production was higher than that of consumption. At the same time, the normal international trade of mineral products is affected, which seriously affects the security and stability of the global mineral resources supply chain.

The prices of major mineral products around the world rebounded in a "√" shape, and the prices of gold, copper, iron ore and other mineral products hit a new record high. In 2020, the total investment in global mineral exploration and mining industry will be about 8.3 billion US dollars and 290 billion US dollars respectively, down 11% and 13% respectively compared with 2019. It is expected to return to the level of 2019 in 2021. The global mining capital market was first restrained and then improved, and the mining sector's attention to capital increased significantly. In 2020, the number and amount of global mining project financing will increase by 17% and 25% respectively year on year. In the first half of 2021, the trend of "volume and price rising together" will continue, with year-on-year growth of 12% and 261% respectively.

The mining policies of major countries and regions are intensively adjusted, and challenges and opportunities coexist. The global mining investment generally faces three major risks, namely, the increase of political and security risks characterized by regime change and social unrest, the rise of protectionism characterized by tax increases and nationalization, and the rise of mining investment barriers characterized by increased security review. At the same time, some mining countries provide opportunities and convenience for international mining investment by relaxing mining regulation and introducing preferential policies.

The performance and comprehensive strength of mining companies continued to differentiate, and the layout of new energy minerals was accelerated. Since the epidemic, the profits of oil and gas companies have declined significantly, and the profits of large mining companies mainly engaged in solid mineral business have been stable. Since the second half of 2020, the performance of mining companies has generally rebounded, and the revenue and market value have continued to rise. The total market value of the world's top 50 mining companies reached $1.47 trillion, a record high. The comprehensive strength of mining giants was further improved, and the layout of copper, lithium, cobalt, nickel and other new energy minerals was accelerated.

Climate change is driving the transformation of human production and lifestyle to low carbon, and the global supply and demand structure of mineral resources and mining pattern are pregnant with significant changes. Under the background of low-carbon economy, the growth of demand for traditional mineral resources is further slowing down, and the demand for clean energy and strategic emerging minerals is growing rapidly. The status of traditional energy resource suppliers such as coal, oil, iron and manganese will decline, while the status of strategic emerging mineral suppliers such as lithium, cobalt and nickel will continue to rise.

China quickly controlled the epidemic, rapidly recovered its economy, and played a role as the engine of the world economy, effectively stimulating the global demand for energy and resources. In 2020, with the overall contraction of global demand for mineral resources, China will grow against the trend. The consumption of oil, iron, copper and aluminum will increase by 2.0%, 9.1%, 17.1% and 6.4% respectively year on year, and the import will increase by 7.3%, 9.5%, 33% and 10.9% respectively, playing an important role in stabilizing the global mining market. At the same time, through mutually beneficial international mining cooperation, China has established positive bilateral relations with other countries in the world on mineral resources development and trade, actively maintained the normal order of international mineral products trade, and promoted global mining open cooperation and common development.

According to the report, with the rapid rebound of market demand after the epidemic, the withdrawal expectation of large-scale quantitative easing policy in major developed economies is rising, and the supply chain of mineral resources and industrial chain are structurally divided, which brings uncertainty to the global mining development, and the mining market continues to fluctuate and adjust into a normal state. In the medium to long term, the demand for global mineral resources will vary, the demand for strategic emerging minerals will accelerate, and the demand for mineral resources in emerging economies such as China will remain at a high level, which will certainly promote the sustainable development and structural changes of global mining.